Muy peligrosa fortaleza del euro

Tener una divisa fuerte suele ser el objetivo de cualquier banco central, o no, depende del país de dicho banco central. Lo cierto es países que viven de atraer grandes inversiones extranjeras, o de atraer patrimonios e inversiones de personas de otros países suelen tener interés en disponer de divisas fuertes, pero todo tiene un límite.

Tener una divisa fuerte es fantástico en un país en el que las importaciones son enormes, ya que esto permite abaratarlas y mucho. Además, en línea con las importaciones, cualquier inversión realizada por el Estado, por empresas y ciudadanos de dicho país se hacen en condiciones francamente ventajosas ya que dichas inversiones o adquisiciones son mucho más baratas (siempre que puedan hacerse, lógicamente siempre hay ciertas restricciones a extranjeros). El problema viene cuando la fortaleza de una divisa pone en serio peligro el crecimiento económico del país. Eso es lo que puede suceder en la zona euro. Uno de los principales problemas que tiene el euro como divisa es que, las diferencias que hay entre los países que lo tienen como divisa son tan grandes, que no es nada fácil llevar a cabo una política monetaria adecuada para todos ellos. Son muchos los que critican al Banco Central Europeo, pero lo cierto es que no lo tiene nada fácil, de hecho, en mi modesta opinión, si hay una política monetaria difícil de dirigir, esa es la de la zona euro. Pero volvamos a los serios inconvenientes de la fortaleza del euro. Europa en general, y la zona euro en particular, necesitan exportar. En los casos particulares de Italia y España, buena parte de su crecimiento económico debe venir por las exportaciones, de hecho, en el caso de España, lo poco que se salvaba en los peores momentos de la crisis fue la capacidad exportadora de sus empresas. Es más, debido a un euro fuerte, el ajuste para tratar de lograr competitividad tuvo que buscarse vía salarios, es decir, con bajadas en los sueldos. De hecho, en un momento de fuerte crecimiento como el que se vive en estos momentos en España, los salarios siguen ajustados y no suben debido, en parte, a que la fortaleza del euro hace que se gane competitividad muy poco a poco. Bien es cierto que una economía puede ser enormemente competitiva con una divisa fuerte, pero una buena devaluación del euro habría ahorrado sufrimiento a países como Italia, Irlanda, Portugal y España, pero a Francia le habría venido de maravilla.

Sea como fuere, el caso es que el dólar está sufriendo lo suyo desde hace meses frente al euro. Esto tiene, sin duda, un componente muy positivo y muy relevante para la zona euro, y es que el petróleo y sus derivados se han abaratado, pero las exportaciones de la zona euro están sufriendo más de lo necesario. Por ejemplo, que España haya hecho récord absoluto de turistas extranjeros este verano tiene un enorme valor, no sólo por la cifra en sí misma, también hay que destacar que hacerlo con una divisa tan fuerte como el euro tiene mucho mérito. De hecho, si el euro hubiera estado más bajo, seguramente se habría podido vender un poco más caro, pero esa es otra cuestión.

Euro-dolar-100-Getty

Fuente: www.eleconomista.es

 

Lo relevante es qué va a hacer el Banco Central Europeo lo que queda de este año y sobre todo cara a 2018, ¿subirá tipos de interés dando un respiro a los bancos, o los mantendrá donde están para no comprometer el crecimiento? A esto, hay que añadir una cuestión aún más relevante si cabe, ¿mantendrá las políticas en lo que se refiere a las compras de deuda que finalizan en 2017, o las mantendrá en 2018? Sin duda estos son temas muy relevantes y de difícil respuesta. Subir tipos de interés y abandonar los programas de compra de deuda pueden tener un impacto francamente negativo en la zona euro, sobre todo en países como Italia, Francia o España, núcleo duro del euro y también de la UE ahora que los británicos han anunciado que se van, aunque parece que no se quieren ir del todo, pero sin duda se quieren ir, sin pagar nada a la Unión Europea, pero pagando un dineral, suponiendo esto un importantísimo ahorro para las arcas británicas, pero un ahorro que no será tal y que les costará más dinero, según lo que dicen y desdicen las autoridades británicas en lo que se refiere al brexit… En fin, ahora que parece que los británicos estarán con dos pies fuera de la UE, pero con la punta del dedo gordo del pie izquierdo dentro, es francamente relevante que España, Italia y Francia estén bien fuertes y sólidos. Sea como sea, este otoño parece que será movidito en lo que se refiere a los mercados de divisas, claro que, con todos los respetos, ¿ha habido alguna vez un año tranquilo? El mundo es así, se mueve, se mueve y se vuelve a mover, aunque, es muy importante estar al tanto de lo que sucede. Personalmente, creo que una depreciación (no he dicho devaluación) del euro, nos vendría de maravilla, nos daría un pequeño respiro, y nos permitiría, a todas las economías del euro ganar competitividad en los mercados globales de bienes y servicios, aunque, habrá que ver qué ocurre. Lo gordo vendrá en octubre, así que, con calma, está ya a la vuelta de la esquina.

 

 

Juan Aitor Lago Moneo

Director de Investigación de Constanza Business & Protocol School

Compartir esto

Comments

  1. Hey there! I know this is kinda off topic however I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa? My website addresses a lot of the same subjects as yours and I think we could greatly benefit from each other. If you are interested feel free to send me an e-mail. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

  2. yaiDQJNe cialis over the counter

  3. tAsG71gl cialis samples

  4. 4vYxLSac buy sildenafil

  5. nXratn9C viagra vs cialis vs levitra

  6. 40KcNX6m how does diflucan work in the body

  7. TbQcosU0 buy levitra online cheap

  8. IDLsIRCb cialis samples request

  9. 9vii4LrH levaquin allergy

  10. zKf13Aca ceftin reviews

  11. 67SEfmd4 allergic reaction to biaxin

  12. imXNrVjI online viagra

  13. MmXdTMe0 cephalexin 500 mg side effects

  14. YdSQHwLk chloromycetin 500mg

  15. oE8DGEe4 generic viagra

  16. tbFt3ZIl tadalafil 20mg review

  17. vlX9Nafx does cipro affect birth control

  18. TuqHwUwg viagra cialis

  19. QJ3clPxM revatio vs viagra

  20. L5IDFZoK tadalafil sublingual

  21. PZnY1GdL cialis canada

  22. H7Qoi5Zj tadalafil 40 mg

  23. vSZyM0tR omnicef dose

  24. 1dTXqPJ4 tadalafil 20mg

  25. 5hMpbEq0 cialis sans ordonnance

  26. vC2oq07n levitra free trial

  27. w2n8ZuEg generic levitra 20mg

  28. m35QNF0Y cialis for daily use

  29. YWKDKWor cialis pas cher

  30. UnKh6xog levitra vs cialis

  31. xeTCzFj3 levitra vs viagra

  32. HGzdKKTc side effects of cialis

  33. yFmaODir cialis super active

  34. rfo8JAv7 what is cialis

  35. 02nnZFVH cialis

  36. EqLEfcgm tadalafil

  37. 06gw23Pd levitra

  38. Uu9gv9qt buy cialis

  39. Dyxn73EH buy levitra

  40. 6NnhO6if buy cialis online

  41. Y2C7FeKK buy cialis

  42. pbBsLxsT buy cialis

  43. jYlwORML buy levitra

  44. wyoWIwBX sildenafil 100 mg

  45. iPSbS2wc cialis tablets

  46. g1rRyXWQ cialis without a doctor’s prescription

  47. DFPMLNtL cialis coupon

  48. 9PzMhKIN cialis coupon

  49. idi5ad6M buy cialis

  50. 7xibRVt6 buy cialis

  51. ow2Xb3yD buy cialis

  52. Y3cr0fEq bactrim ds

  53. IBnZZebI levitra 20 mg

  54. 2r3jtauw levitra 20 mg

  55. 3lqjtdS5 cefdinir 300 mg

  56. Z3yJmSc0 levofloxacin 500 mg

  57. VRX42x3v levitra generic

  58. L3EQuStc cephalexin 500mg capsule antibiotic

  59. aqHXAUcu azithromycin 250 mg

  60. qKoR6wme amoxicillin 500 mg

  61. E24SgDTJ bupropion hcl

  62. 6J7b33QU finasteride 5mg

  63. imSHDACF cialis without a doctor prescription

  64. djiaQnWr cialis tablets uk

  65. nRswhvOC tadalafil generic cialis 20mg

  66. 1UE2tEYN cialis para que sirve

  67. vY5RhG12 sildenafil citrate generic

  68. Af01mJ7H can amoxicillin cause diarrhea

  69. Ur3Dhuq7 crestor patient assistance

  70. jwJ7Ebly cialis 20 mg

  71. O2m8oTc4 levitra 20 mg coupon

  72. zzjZeAgg sildenafil tablets for sale

  73. dMZJB5fS cialis coupons 20 mg

  74. 9bUjZ3j2 buy viagra online

  75. 3dBp6oIg best price on viagra 50 mg

  76. PnaUxnpy buy viagra online

  77. vj5TkA1D cialis daily

  78. IzHwyiJH sildenafil citrate

  79. k4arkErm diflucan

  80. ysyem2y3 tadalafil 20 mg

  81. 4HnI8Q3k cialis tablets 20mg

  82. zMN6uc2E cialis tablets generic

  83. BsPsGtZJ cialis tablets 5mg

  84. AX73BiWf cialis tablets

  85. uhEVEoTu levitra 20 mg

  86. uBedFpCR levitra 20 mg

  87. WsCksxHm levofloxacin 500 mg

  88. zC4V984w bactrim ds

  89. AWTLWcKz levitra coupon

  90. tyPfv2Zl levitra generic

  91. q8mLKP6D sildenafil citrate

  92. hAxdbmHw sildenafil tablets

  93. u2LlvSXV sildenafil 100mg

  94. CuDmUrzZ sildenafil 100mg

  95. 7l9ny5LT sildenafil citrate 100mg

  96. kyk4PPdC simvastatin 20 mg

  97. HQpSAHsF simvastatin 20 mg

  98. FIiYSmL3 lipitor generic

  99. 6oQuoSUH amiodarone 200 mg

  100. HrU5L32c augmentin 875 mg

  101. pIVt8U0s azithromycin 250 mg

  102. tw3WKf74 levitra 20mg best price

  103. 1Lbaq0s9 sildenafil tablets

  104. c2HCyO7I tadalafil generic

  105. ZLUwl3z2 generic prozac

  106. 0Epdd5D1 sildenafil generic

  107. 7sepJzH4 fluoxetine 20 mg

  108. hZcgfE3E generic for viagra

  109. 5k6utRvL cialis generic

  110. wBAfE6D0 sildenafil 100mg

  111. BBKWrcL1 sildenafil coupons

  112. SltYrAjm priligy tablets

  113. e6Rz9c9O viagra tablets

  114. iEXCY218 zoloft generic

  115. HrdrYSka cialis pills

  116. gHl49GKH cialis generika in deutschland kaufen

  117. IUzFXLJN cialis tablets australia

  118. 7tydLXlO low cost cialis 20mg

  119. zuPfRs7h tadalafil 40 mg

  120. pBO1a1yl cialis pills for sale

  121. sqd0mR5u cost cialis 20mg

  122. zTnjNZsZ levitra generic

  123. n0Sdzfrs cialis generic

  124. AWL5VK17 sildenafil citrate

  125. eEHqzpHb cialis tablets

  126. uDeSDjJy sildenafil 100mg

  127. BPjR9k0S tadalafil generic

  128. HsYmJOeZ sildenafil coupons

  129. HktSYZJX cialis 20mg tablets prices

  130. 1ZNU9ChF levitra 20mg best price

  131. 1oGP2Bnr sildenafil 100mg

  132. YVJ9SqRg cialis generic

  133. yqJCeT5Y levitra generic

  134. zsJSTAbG sildenafil citrate

  135. eW1gudrT cialis generic availability

  136. pNWhVyOb levitra 20mg for sale

  137. Ot5rNezm sildenafil citrate 100mg

  138. vKd9SYNK cialis generic pharmacy

  139. QyCk47GF sildenafil coupons

  140. 9cz7ZKL8 cialis generic prices

  141. jXalmjPE cialis generic tadalafil

  142. Hi there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re using?
    I’m planning to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.

    The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most
    blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S
    Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  143. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy.
    I’ve read this post and if I could I want to suggest you
    some interesting things or suggestions. Maybe you can write
    next articles referring to this article. I desire to read more
    things about it!

  144. It’s actually a nice and helpful piece of information.
    I’m satisfied that you simply shared this useful info with us.
    Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

  145. I will right away grab your rss feed as I can’t in finding your e-mail subscription hyperlink or e-newsletter service.

    Do you have any? Kindly let me understand in order that I may subscribe.
    Thanks.

  146. Hi, this weekend is good for me, for the reason that this point
    in time i am reading this enormous educational paragraph
    here at my home.

  147. It’s perfect time to make a few plans for the longer term and
    it is time to be happy. I’ve learn this submit and
    if I could I wish to suggest you few attention-grabbing issues or advice.

    Maybe you could write subsequent articles relating to this article.
    I want to learn even more issues about it!

  148. It’s going to be ending of mine day, but before ending I am reading this wonderful article
    to increase my experience.

  149. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy.
    I’ve read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you some interesting things or tips.
    Maybe you could write next articles referring to
    this article. I desire to read more things about it!

  150. I am sure this post has touched all the internet
    viewers, its really really fastidious article on building
    up new blog.

  151. Ahaa, its good discussion on the topic of this post at this place
    at this web site, I have read all that, so now me also commenting here.

  152. I am sure this piece of writing has touched all the internet viewers, its really really
    pleasant piece of writing on building up new webpage.

  153. Absolutely composed content material, thanks for entropy.

  154. Hey there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using?
    I’m going to start my own blog in the near future but I’m
    having a hard time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and
    Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and
    I’m looking for something completely unique.
    P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  155. I wanted to thank you for this good read!! I definitely loved every bit of it.
    I have you book marked to look at new stuff you

  156. I’ll right away grasp your rss feed as I can not to find your email subscription hyperlink or newsletter service.
    Do you’ve any? Please let me recognize in order
    that I may just subscribe. Thanks.

  157. It’s very effortless to find out any topic on net
    as compared to books, as I found this article at this
    website.

  158. I could not resist commenting. Exceptionally well written!

  159. You’ve made some really good points there.

    I checked on the internet to learn more about the issue and
    found most people will go along with your views on this web site.

  160. If some one desires expert view concerning blogging
    and site-building after that i recommend him/her to pay a visit this weblog,
    Keep up the pleasant work.

  161. It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy.
    I’ve read this post and if I could I want to suggest
    you some interesting things or advice. Perhaps you can write next articles referring to this article.
    I want to read even more things about it!

  162. These are genuinely impressive ideas in on the topic of blogging.
    You have touched some pleasant factors here. Any way keep up wrinting.

  163. Ahaa, its pleasant conversation concerning this piece of writing at this place at this blog,
    I have read all that, so now me also commenting at this place.

  164. I have learned result-oriented things from your blog post. One other thing to I have recognized is that usually, FSBO sellers may reject you actually. Remember, they can prefer to not use your products and services. But if you maintain a gradual, professional partnership, offering support and keeping contact for about four to five weeks, you will usually be able to win a meeting. From there, a listing follows. Thanks a lot

  165. I’ve been browsing online more than 3 hours lately, yet I never found
    any fascinating article like yours. It is lovely worth enough for me.
    In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made just right content material as you did, the web will likely be much more helpful than ever before.

  166. It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it’s time to be happy.
    I’ve read this post and if I could I wish to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions.
    Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article.
    I desire to read even more things about it!

  167. Hello! I’ve been reading your site for a long time now and finally got
    the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Austin Tx!
    Just wanted to tell you keep up the good job!

  168. Hi there everybody, here every one is sharing these kinds of familiarity, therefore
    it’s nice to read this web site, and I used to visit this weblog everyday.

  169. This file was added by Charles Tigerino All information are examined before published, a few of
    information might have flagged by AV, but we guarantee there is no threats to your PC.
    We usually are not accountable in case your third get
    together account acquired banned by using March
    Of Empires Hack Tool – February 23 2017 Unlimited Gold information.

  170. Hello, Neat post. There is a problem with your site
    in web explorer, could check this? IE nonetheless is the marketplace leader and a large section of other folks will miss your fantastic writing
    due to this problem.

  171. Hola! I’ve been reading your site for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and
    give you a shout out from Kingwood Tx! Just wanted to mention keep up the good work!

  172. Its such as you learn my mind! You seem to understand a lot approximately this, such as
    you wrote the guide in it or something. I believe that you could do with some % to pressure the message house a
    bit, but instead of that, that is wonderful blog.
    A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back.

  173. It iss perfect ttime too makle soome pans foor thhe fugure and it’s tikme
    tto be happy. I’ve learn this pput upp and iff I mmay I wamt to recomend youu few fascinatting thongs orr tips.
    Maybge yoou cpuld writee nexst aarticles regarding thnis
    article. I wissh too read more issues approoximately it!

  174. You are my inspiration, I possess few web logs and infrequently run out from post :). “He who controls the past commands the future. He who commands the future conquers the past.” by George Orwell.

  175. Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated data, nevertheless really really worth taking a appear, whoa did one particular understand about Mid East has got far more problerms also.

  176. although sites we backlink to beneath are considerably not related to ours, we really feel they are in fact worth a go by, so have a look

  177. here are some hyperlinks to sites that we link to because we believe they may be really worth visiting

  178. one of our visitors recently proposed the following website

  179. that is the finish of this article. Right here youll obtain some websites that we consider youll value, just click the hyperlinks over

  180. Every the moment in a while we pick blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most recent websites that we pick out

  181. the time to study or stop by the material or sites we’ve linked to beneath the

  182. that could be the end of this write-up. Right here you will find some websites that we assume youll enjoy, just click the hyperlinks over

  183. [url=http://writeessayhtfd.com]does off brand viagra work[/url] viagra direct uk http://writeessayhtfd.com

  184. here are some hyperlinks to websites that we link to simply because we believe they may be really worth visiting

  185. just beneath, are numerous entirely not connected websites to ours, however, they may be certainly worth going over

  186. very few sites that happen to become comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely really worth checking out

  187. Here is an excellent Weblog You may Find Fascinating that we Encourage You

  188. cialis generic

  189. [url=http://lizlarssen.com]where to buy viagra online review[/url] side effects viagra pills http://lizlarssen.com

  190. buy cialis

  191. sildenafil

  192. [url=http://lizlarssen.com]sell viagra online[/url] lowest viagra prices http://lizlarssen.com

  193. buy viagra

  194. tadalafil

  195. cialis

  196. sildenafil citrate

  197. viagra 100mg

  198. very few sites that occur to become detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely worth checking out

  199. cheap cialis

  200. generic viagra

  201. please go to the internet sites we stick to, like this one, as it represents our picks in the web

  202. just beneath, are various totally not associated web pages to ours, having said that, they’re surely worth going over

  203. buy viagra online

  204. buy cialis online

  205. The data mentioned in the post are a number of the top out there

  206. cheap viagra

  207. cialis 20mg

  208. cialis 5 mg

  209. always a large fan of linking to bloggers that I appreciate but do not get quite a bit of link enjoy from

  210. generic viagra

  211. cialis 5 mg

  212. Every after inside a even though we pick out blogs that we read. Listed below would be the latest web sites that we pick

  213. cialis coupon

  214. generic viagra 100mg

  215. cialis coupon

  216. cialis online

  217. please stop by the websites we comply with, including this one particular, because it represents our picks through the web

  218. generic viagra available

  219. cialis pills

  220. viagra without a doctor prescription

  221. cialis pills

  222. viagra coupons

  223. cialis prices

  224. viagra vs cialis

  225. just beneath, are various entirely not connected web sites to ours, nonetheless, they are surely really worth going over

  226. check below, are some completely unrelated web sites to ours, nevertheless, they are most trustworthy sources that we use

  227. cialis tablets

  228. Good write-up, I’m regular visitor of one’s site, maintain up the excellent operate, and It’s going to be a regular visitor for a long time.

  229. cialis tablets

  230. viagra online

  231. cialis vs viagra

  232. tadalafil 20mg

  233. viagra pills

  234. tadalafil 20 mg

  235. viagra prices

  236. tadalafil 20mg

  237. viagra tablets

  238. augmentin

  239. bactrim

  240. biaxin

  241. ceftin

  242. cephalexin

  243. chloramphenicol

  244. diflucan

  245. levaquin

  246. we came across a cool website that you simply may love. Take a look if you want

  247. atorvastatin

  248. cefdinir

  249. prednisone

  250. baclofen

    baclofen

  251. prednisone

  252. fluoxetine

  253. fluoxetine

  254. vardenafil

  255. always a large fan of linking to bloggers that I appreciate but really don’t get a whole lot of link really like from

  256. always a huge fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but dont get a lot of link like from

  257. one of our guests a short while ago encouraged the following website

  258. azithromycin 250

  259. bactrim antibiotic

  260. cefuroxime

  261. cephalexin 500 mg

  262. chloromycetin

  263. ciprofloxacin

  264. fluconazole

  265. levofloxacin

  266. The details talked about inside the write-up are several of the most beneficial out there

  267. cefdinir 300 mg

  268. prednisone 10 mg

  269. Although internet sites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they’re in fact worth a go by way of, so possess a look.

  270. prednisone 10 mg

  271. fluoxetine hcl

  272. fluoxetine 20 mg

  273. tadalafil 20 mg

  274. augmentin 875 mg

  275. azithromycin 250 mg

  276. that would be the finish of this article. Here you will locate some internet sites that we consider you will enjoy, just click the hyperlinks over

  277. bactrim ds

  278. cephalexin 500mg

  279. levofloxacin 500 mg

  280. atorvastatin 20 mg

  281. cefdinir antibiotic

  282. prozac

  283. Every once in a while we select blogs that we read. Listed below would be the newest web sites that we pick

  284. tadalafil 20mg

Envía tu comentario