El impacto del dólar

A
los que fuimos niños en los años 80 y adolescentes en los 90, y españoles,
cuando nos tocaba viajar fuera, siempre sufríamos con nuestra añorada, para
algunos, peseta. No es que le tuviéramos manía a nuestra divisa, ni mucho
menos, pero, cuando tocaba comprar algo fuera de España, sobre todo cuando
íbamos a EEUU o a Reino Unido, todo se nos hacía aún más caro. Tener una divisa
débil, tiene muchas desventajas, ya que las importaciones salen sensiblemente
más caras, y se sufre todavía más los vaivenes en los precios del petróleo,
sobre todo cuando el precio sube. Eso sí, una divisa débil, o más débil que los
mercados con los que uno suele interactuar, tiene dos claras ventajas:
                1º.- La empresa es más
competitiva porque es más barata cuando exporta, de esto saben mucho en Japón, de hecho cada vez que
el dólar se deprecia, el yen va rápidamente
detrás, pero cuando el dólar sube su valor, el yen se lo toma con mucha calma.
               2º.- Cada ingreso realizado
fuera del país, al repatriarlo, tiene un valor muchísimo mayor, ya que al cambiarlo por la divisa
nacional, más débil, «cunde» muchísimo más.
Las
multinacionales (y las que no lo son también), estadounidenses están sufriendo
sobre manera el impacto del dólar. ¿Qué quiere esto decir? La confianza en la
economía de EEUU está en lo más alto, está creciendo de una manera casi
robusta, y ha dejado atrás por mucho tiempo la nefasta gran recesión que llevó
a la quiebra a su sistema financiero, y que casi acaba con la zona euro. A esto
hay que añadir que los emergentes se están desinflando, China no crece como
antes y es cuestión de tiempo que explote su burbuja inmobiliaria (explotará,
que nadie lo dude, cuanto más tarde lo haga, peor será), Brasil parece que
aguantará hasta las olimpiadas y poco después claudicará, y Rusia, y sobre todo
su divisa, no lo pasaba tan mal desde los años 90… Sólo India parece estar
aguantando, pero no es suficiente. La confianza que había en los emergentes ya
no es tal, y los inversores internacionales quieren volver a lo seguro y han
decidido apostar a caballo ganador, y EEUU siempre es un pura sangre por el que
apostar, por muy elevada que sea su deuda pública.
Esto
supone que el dólar se aprecia respecto a otras divisas, y, para los mercados
de capitales esto puede ser muy bueno porque el dinero fluye a toda velocidad
hacia los bancos estadounidenses, pero esta apreciación del dólar hace
muchísimo daño a los estados financieros de las multinacionales de EEUU. ¿Por
qué? Que se lo pregunten a los Departamentos de Consolidación, que en estos
momentos deben ser un mar de lágrimas en el país de Sam Adams. Al consolidar
las cifras de negocios de unidades de negocio y filiales en España, Francia,
Colombia, México, Japón, Chile, Malasia o Perú, se deben convertir todas las divisas
a dólares, y ahí, las cifras de negocio menguan, porque el euro, el yen, el
peso colombiano, el peso chileno y otras divisas, pierden valor, en palabras de
nuestras abuelas, el dinero que se ha hecho en estos países, cunde menos. Esto
es lo que se conoce como el riesgo divisa, y afecta a todas las multinacionales
del mundo. Cuando trabajé, en el año 2000 en Saint-Gobain, la compañía más
antigua de Francia (es anterior a la misma República), lo pude comprobar por mí
mismo. Al consolidar las cifras de negocio de países con divisas más débiles
que el franco francés se perdía valor. Como decíamos en el Departamento de
Consolidación en París, «todo un año de durísimo esfuerzo realizado por
nuestras filiales, para que se pierda un 5%, 10%, 15% o 20% de su valor al dar
a una tecla». Esto es precisamente lo que está pasando en EEUU y lo que le
está ocurriendo a muchas de sus empresas, como General Motor, Pepsi o P&G,
que están viendo cómo el efecto de la fluctuación en las divisas les está
afectando de una manera muy negativa. Algo muy parecido le ocurrió a H&M
entre los años 2010 y 2013, cuando, en plena crisis del euro, la corona sueca
se apreció y mucho frente al euro, lo que supuso unas cifras no muy halagüeñas
como grupo.
¿Durante
cuánto tiempo ocurrirá esto? Personalmente, siempre he creído que los
emergentes se desinflarían a base de un fortísimo estallido de la economía
brasileña en el año 2017, para ser más exactos, en el segundo trimestre, unos 8
meses después de las olimpiadas. Ahora ya no estoy tan seguro. Creo que lo que
ocurrirá es que los emergentes irán desinflándose, poco a poco, sin llegar al
drama, hasta las olimpiadas en Brasil del próximo año, 2016. Después de eso,
quien sabe, aunque, personalmente, veo difícil que los emergentes vuelvan a
crecer. Al menos en lo que respecta a China a Brasil, creo que tienen una
crisis inmobiliaria muy severa, que repercutirá de una manera muy negativa en
su economía, y esto tiene que aflorar, sea el año que viene, sea en el año
2017. Por ello, estimo que la fortaleza del dólar se mantendrá, al menos lo que
queda de 2015, y habrá que estar muy atentos a 2016, aunque, por ahora, nada
hace presagiar que esa fortaleza del dólar no se vaya a mantener durante el año
que viene y el siguiente, aunque, como he dicho, tendremos que estar muy
alertas.
En
lo que se refiere a la zona euro, en cuanto se hayan despejado las dudas sobre
Grecia, que seguramente termine llegando a un acuerdo con la Unión Europea, y
con lo se denomina ahora como «el grupo de Bruselas», y cuando las turbulencias
fuertes lleguen a los emergentes, verá como el euro se aprecia de nuevo, lo
que, será muy bueno para atraer capitales, pero no tanto para exportar ni para
atraer turistas. Por ahora, a España le interesa un euro débil, unos tipos de
interés bajos, y un precio del petróleo, y de la energía en general, bajo, y
eso es justamente lo que parece haber ahora, por fin. ¿Se mantendrá mucho
tiempo? Me temo que no, el precio del petróleo está subiendo de nuevo, y todo
parece indicar que llegará a los 60 dólares por barril a finales de este año.
Eso sí, un euro débil supone más exportaciones para la zona euro, y lo que
necesita ahora mismo Europa es exportar todo lo que pueda, reducir deuda
pública, estabilidad económica y política, y un mercado laboral que funcione.
Como
ya he dicho, habrá que estar muy atentos este año al comportamiento del dólar,
al de las economías emergentes, a las decisiones de la Reserva Federal y del
Banco Central Europeo, y, cómo no, al precio del petróleo. Hemos pasado en
Europa la peor crisis económica desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial (en el caso de
España, desde la Guerra Civil), y aunque parece que llega la calma, tendremos
algunas turbulencias aún, aunque comparado con lo que hemos pasado, peccata
minuta.

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